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Betting on NFL Games

by Steve Larson www.bestwebguide.com

Betting on sports is always a fun activity, especially if you are a fan of the sport you bet on. Making money or - eventually - a living on the whole deal is a different matter altogether though.


The handicapping that you do might be OK for a recreational activity. If you intend to take your sports betting to the next level though, you have another thing coming. First thing you need to understand is, that sports betting - the way the big betting public takes to it - is a negative EV value activity.


Betting on NFL

Over in Europe, the 1x2 system takes care of the odds in a fairly obvious manner, so it doesn't take a whole lot of brainstorming to see why it is not in the advantage of the bettor. Here in the States though, we have the spread. That - my friend - is much better than the 1x2 system, but it's still negative EV for the square bettor, and here's why: the way the bookmaker sets his lines is one that makes sure he gets an equal number of bettors on both teams. That is the main goal of the book: have an approximately equal mix of squares and sharps on both sides of the bet, that way, they'll be able to pay winners out without a problem, and keep the vig without taking any sort of chances whatsoever.


The only goal behind the spread is to make all types of advantages vanish from one side or the other, therefore we can safely state that a well-balanced spread is a 50-50 bet or a coin-toss. Now, if you bet on the spread, you'll be laying the odds, because you'll be risking more money on the coin-toss than the amount you hope to win. That's where your negative expected value is hiding. It may not be much on a bet, but it's there and it will do its job over the long-run.


The above scenario is valid for a perfectly balanced match-up on which, you, a square, bet with the common-sense based knowledge you possess about sports gambling.


Fortunately, the bookmaker cannot balance every single match-up the way he'd like to, and therefore the 50-50 coin-toss situation won't always be there. These are the games you need to be on the lookout for, and this is the reason why you need to learn a thing or two about reverse handicapping.


By reverse handicapping games, you'll be looking at them from an entirely different perspective: that of the bookmaker. You'll check the lines given and you'll analyze the reasons that might have prompted the bookmaker to give them their actual form. That way, you'll be able to locate hidden value and exploit it. When betting on the hidden value, the bet will no longer be a 50-50 coin toss, thus your EV will no longer be negative either.


Let's see some examples of the hidden value.


In the NFL, the crowd loves a favorite. This is a fact not even the beloved fav. playing on the road against a potent underdog can deny. The square money will come flowing in on the favorite, even though statistically, underdogs in such situations are pretty good SU, let alone ATS.


When there is too much money coming in on one side, the bookmaker will attempt to compensate and induce value onto the other side to entice bettors. That is your hidden value right there. The book is forced by the circumstances to leave value in the lines.


Be on the lookout for the value, because the bookie knows the squares are just waiting for the right moment to pounce on the hidden value.


Sometimes the difference between the square and sharp money will be so big, the bookmaker will cover some of the square bets himself.


Hidden value can be found in unpopular bets, as well as in unpopular match-ups.


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