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NFL Betting Tips

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Betting on football games is fun, but if you pretend getting the better result and win your bets you have to spend time thinking and looking at some facts before you make up your mind about your move. Before looking at the lines for a game you should look at the rankings, stats of the players, injury reports, even the weather forecast in days close to the game and on the day of the game. Then after all these factors are in your mind and the possible outcome is now more clear to you, make your prediction and then look at the lines. This way your prediction is yours, and not influenced by the public eye on the game.


Look at the lines when your prediction about the game is solid, but look closely at the lines in different places; check for discrepancies and variables. The Line is not an attempt to predict the game outcome; instead it is a reflection of the market’s perception of the game. When that fact is clearly in your mind, you can analyze the lines and search for the advantage you are looking for.


Key Numbers around Spread Betting

Betting in football is all about the key numbers around the score, so you will have to be aware of this all the time. But what is the key number in a football game? When you take a look at the statistics in football games you will notice that most of them end with differences in the score of 3 or 7 points, so when handicapping a game these common margins are the most important. These margins of victory are what determine the movement of the lines for a football game.


When you are wagering around a certain game you have to cover the spread of the line, but taking into consideration the victory margins is a priority; a change in the line from 5 to 5.5 is not as important as a change of 3 to 3.5 (or 2.5) since the first change is not an usual outcome in the majority of the games, but a difference margin of 3 is a lot more common.


A lot of the NFL games fall within the following victory margins: 3 (17% of the game results), 7 (10%of the game results) or 10 (6% of the game results), so moves around these spreads are more important than the spreads around 5, 6 or 4. The combined odds for the 3 more common results is a 33% of the games, or a third of all the games. That's why the lines in these games are sharper, and serious considerations have to be taken. For example, if you take a line with a spread of -3 and the score falls on 3 points you achieve a push, so there is no problem at all. But if the spread is -3.5, you would lose, so be very careful when picking this kind of half point spread.


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